|
By E. Ralph Hostetter
August 30, 2006
The traditional statement "can of worms" hardly describes the political mish-mash Lebanon faces today.
Following World War I and the breakup of the Ottoman Empire the Arabian Peninsula today represented by some dozen nations was thrown into a power vacuum of sorts. The newly established League of Nations mandated Syria to France as a protectorate. Syria had been a single political unit in the old Ottoman Empire. In 1920, France created two separate colonial administrations, drawing borders that separated predominately Muslim Syria from the kaleidoscope of religious communities in Lebanon, where Maronite Christians were then dominant. Lebanon received full independence in 1946, and according to a National Pact (1943) signed with the departing French, different religious communities (18 sects in all) were to be represented in government.
What now has become the major political problem began in 1944 when the French handed Lebanon over to the country's French-speaking Maronite Christian elite and founded what is called the confessional system. The National Pact (1943) mandated that the President of Lebanon must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of Parliament a Shiite Muslim. Today, some 63 years later, the newly elected (2005) President is Maronite Christian Emile Lahoud; Prime Minister is Sunni Muslim Fouad Saniora; and Speaker of the Parliament is Shiite Muslim Nabih Berri.
While the mandate of 1943 may hold, the basis for it, the demography of Lebanon, has changed. Voting patterns have shifted dramatically and only extensive gerrymandering can provide each of the 18 sects a certain number of seats in Parliament. The U.S. State Department, according to THE WASHINGTON POST, estimates Lebanon's population at about 70% Muslim and 23% Christian, with Shiite Muslims outnumbering the Sunnis. The election process has evolved, for all intents, into a weighted voting system. THE WASHINGTON POST reports, "In the last election, politicians running in the primarily Muslim south had to get three times as many votes to win a seat as those running in some Christian areas." This especially affects the Shiite Muslims, now in the majority, considered as disenfrancisement. Hezbollah is the armed Shiite militia. Since 1958 Lebanon has been ravaged by two civil wars, two invasions by Israel and a long occupation by Syria ending in 2004.
Hezbollah, over a period of some 20 years, grew out of this crucible, concentrating its strength in southern Lebanon. Several serious attempts were made to disband all private militia groups in Lebanon, only to have them return in greater strength. Hezbollah gained the support of Iran, which provides its forces with rockets and other weapons which are transported through Syria. In addition, Iran provides millions of dollars per month of financial support, enabling Hezbollah to ingratiate itself with the Lebanese population by building a network of schools, hospitals and charities. Hezbollah, according to media reports, was the first to give substantial aid to the Lebanese people who lost their belongings and homes during the recent attacks by Israel. Some reports suggested that families were given up to $12,000 in cash, supposedly in U.S. $100 bills. A ceasefire, declared as of August 14, 2006, is in effect at this writing.
The ceasefire agreement, brokered by France and the United States, provides for some 30,000 military personnel to form a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. A Lebanese force, some 15,000 strong, will form the first line. The second line is planned to have an initial force of 5,500 troops to be provided within 20 days. A United Nations force, known as UNIFIL, comprised of 2,000 troops, is presently in place. The UNIFIL force was charged in 2004 by UN Resolution 1559 with the disarming of all private militia in southern Lebanon. Nothing was accomplished.
France was one of the first volunteers, with a pledge of 2,000 troops. However, being the four-flusher that France always proves to be, the figure of 2,000 was weasled down to 200 engineers to add to the present 200 troops presently in the UNIFIL contingent. To add further insult, France offered itself as the likely leader. So far, no European country has offered troops. Germany and Denmark have offered patrol boats.
Other pledges came from Bangladesh, 2,000 troops; Malaysia, 1,000 troops; Indonesia, 1,000 troops; Nepal, 1,000 troops. At this point it would seem the commitment of some 3,500 additional troops has been reached. Of note is the fact that all the above nations have no diplomatic relation with Israel. These nations have taken positions in the United Nations over past years condeming Israel.
So what does all this mean? While Lebanese Minister of Defense Elias Al Murr may declare that Hezbollah will be disarmed at the first indication of its violation of the ceasefire it is problematical that such an action would be successful. The Government of Lebanon has demonstrated little control, if any, over Hezbollah. A substantial number of Lebanese look favorably upon Hezbollah. Statements by the President of Lebanon, Emil Lahoud, indicate he looks upon Hezbollah as a defender against Israel.
The 15,000-troop Lebanese force on the Israeli Border reportedly is weaker than the Hezbollah group and may prove incapable of disarming it. Couple this with troops volunteered by other nations who have expressed open hostility toward Israel, add a cease-fire period long enough to permit Hezbollah to regroup, re-arm and acquire more and longer-range missiles, and Israel may be looking at a Trojan Horse of terrorist proportions.
E. Ralph Hostetter, a prominent businessman and publisher, also is an award-winning columnist and Vice Chairman of the Free Congress Foundation. He welcomes email comments at eralphhostetter@yahoo.com.
|
